HomeMethodologyQuant grades

How Lician Quant Grades work

Every US stock gets a letter grade from A+ to F on five factors (valuation, growth, profitability, momentum and EPS revisions) and an overall quant rating from 1.00 (Strong Sell) to 5.00 (Strong Buy). Each grade compares the stock with the other stocks in its sector, so a bank is measured against banks and a chipmaker against technology companies. The grades are computed by a program from reported data, the same way for every stock; nobody adjusts them by hand.

The five factors and their metrics

Each factor is built from the metrics below. A metric we cannot compute for a stock (no filing, no estimate, no price history) is left out; it never counts against the stock.

Valuation

How cheap the stock is against its earnings, sales, cash flow and book value.

  • P/E (TTM): Market cap / net income, trailing 12 months (lower is better).
  • P/E (forward): Price / next 4 quarters of consensus EPS (reported quarters fill in where the consensus does not reach) (lower is better).
  • P/S (TTM): Market cap / revenue, trailing 12 months (lower is better).
  • EV/EBITDA: (Market cap + debt - cash) / EBITDA, trailing 12 months (lower is better).
  • P/FCF: Market cap / free cash flow (operating cash flow - capex), trailing 12 months (lower is better).
  • P/B: Market cap / shareholders’ equity, latest balance sheet (lower is better).

Growth

How fast revenue, earnings and free cash flow are growing.

  • Revenue growth (YoY): Trailing-12-month revenue vs the 12 months before.
  • EPS growth (YoY): Trailing-12-month diluted EPS vs the 12 months before (only when the earlier EPS is positive).
  • FCF growth (YoY): Trailing-12-month free cash flow vs the 12 months before (only when the earlier FCF is positive).
  • Revenue CAGR (3y): Compound annual revenue growth over the last 3 fiscal years.

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital and cash generation.

  • Gross margin: Gross profit / revenue, trailing 12 months.
  • Operating margin: Operating income / revenue, trailing 12 months.
  • Net margin: Net income / revenue, trailing 12 months.
  • Return on equity: Net income (TTM) / shareholders’ equity (only when equity is positive).
  • Return on assets: Net income (TTM) / total assets.
  • FCF margin: Free cash flow / revenue, trailing 12 months.
  • Cash from operations: Operating cash flow, trailing 12 months (in dollars).

Momentum

Price performance over 1, 3, 6 and 12 months against the sector.

  • 1-month return: Adjusted close change over the last month.
  • 3-month return: Adjusted close change over the last 3 months.
  • 6-month return: Adjusted close change over the last 6 months.
  • 12-month return (ex last month): Adjusted close change from 12 months ago to 1 month ago (skips the latest month).

EPS Revisions

Whether analysts are raising or cutting their earnings estimates.

  • EPS estimate, 30-day change: Current-quarter consensus EPS now vs 30 days ago.
  • EPS estimate, 90-day change: Current-quarter consensus EPS now vs 90 days ago.
  • Next-quarter EPS, 30-day change: Next-quarter consensus EPS now vs 30 days ago.
  • Net up/down revisions (30d): (Upward - downward EPS revisions) / all revisions in the last 30 days, current and next quarter.

From metrics to grades

  1. Peer group. A stock is compared with its sector (Technology, Healthcare, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Industrials, Energy, Utilities, Real Estate, Materials, Communication Services). When a sector has fewer than 10 graded stocks, its stocks are compared with all graded US stocks instead, and the card says so. Share classes of one company (GOOG and GOOGL, BRK.A and BRK.B) count as one peer.
  2. Percentile per metric. For each metric we rank the stock among the peers that have that metric: the share of peers it beats, with ties counted half. For valuation multiples a lower value ranks higher. A metric is ranked only when at least 5 peers have it.
  3. Losses rank last on multiples. A P/E, P/S, P/FCF, EV/EBITDA or P/B with a zero or negative denominator (a loss, negative cash flow or negative equity) is shown as NM, “not meaningful”, and ranks below every positive multiple. That is reported data, not missing data.
  4. Factor score. The average of the stock’s metric percentiles in that factor, with at least 2 metrics, else no grade. The averages are ranked again within the peer group, so grades spread from A+ to F instead of bunching in the middle.
  5. Letter grade. The factor score (0 to 100) maps to a letter:

A+ 93.0 – 100.0

A 86.0 – 92.9

A- 79.0 – 85.9

B+ 72.0 – 78.9

B 65.0 – 71.9

B- 58.0 – 64.9

C+ 51.0 – 57.9

C 44.0 – 50.9

C- 37.0 – 43.9

D+ 30.0 – 36.9

D 23.0 – 29.9

D- 16.0 – 22.9

F 0.0 – 15.9

The quant rating (1.00 to 5.00)

The rating is the equal-weight average of the stock’s factor scores, ranked within its peer group and scaled to 1.00 to 5.00. A stock needs at least 3 factor grades, one of them valuation, growth or profitability, to get a rating; otherwise the card shows the grades it has and says why there is no rating.

  • Strong Buy 4.50 – 5.00
  • Buy 3.50 – 4.49
  • Hold 2.50 – 3.49
  • Sell 1.50 – 2.49
  • Strong Sell 1.00 – 1.49

Because the rating is a rank within the sector, about one stock in eight in each sector is a Strong Buy and one in eight a Strong Sell. The card shows the sector and how many peers the stock was ranked against.

Data, timing and history

  • Statements: income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements parsed from SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q). Trailing twelve months is the sum of the last four quarters; when the fourth quarter exists only in the annual report, it is the last fiscal year plus the quarters since, minus the same quarters a year earlier. Statements whose latest period ended more than 460 days ago are not used.
  • Market cap: the stored price × shares outstanding; forward P/E uses the consensus EPS from the earnings calendar (EODHD).
  • Momentum: adjusted closing prices from EODHD end-of-day files for the latest session and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months earlier. The 12-month return stops one month ago, which avoids the short-term reversal effect.
  • Revisions: the EODHD earnings trend for the current and next fiscal quarter (consensus EPS now vs 30 and 90 days ago, and the count of upward and downward revisions in 30 days). Trend data older than 45 days is ignored. Revenue-estimate revisions and changes in analyst ratings are not included yet: we do not store their history.
  • Schedule: the grades are recomputed after each US trading day, between 01:00 and 04:00 UTC (Tuesday to Saturday). Each stock keeps one set of grades per day, so grade changes can be shown and the method can be tested on past data.

ETFs, foreign companies and share classes

  • ETFs and funds get no grades. The grades compare operating companies with their sector, which does not apply to a basket of stocks.
  • Foreign companies (ADRs) that report in another currency get no price-based valuation metrics (their per-share figures are per ordinary share, not per ADR). Growth, margins, momentum and revisions still count, so many get factor grades but no overall rating.
  • Blank-check companies (SPACs) and stocks we cannot place in a sector are not graded.

What the grades are not

The grades describe how a stock’s reported numbers and price trend compare with its sector today. They do not predict returns and are not investment advice. Read the full disclaimer and the general data methodology.