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SPCE earnings / call

SPCE earnings call transcript, November 12, 2026

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings

ReplayOfficial webcast
  • Douglas Ahrens 35%
  • Michael Colglazier 33%
  • Management 18%
  • Desiree 2%
  • Analysts 3%

Management

  • Douglas Ahrens

    Chief Financial Officer

    11 min

  • Michael Colglazier

    CEO and President

    10 min

  • Desiree

    Management

    1 min

Transcribed automatically by Lician from the company's public webcast; it can contain errors and speaker names are best effort.

  1. Prepared remarks10:15
  2. DesireeManagement

    My name is Desiree and I will be your conference operator today.

  3. Q&A10:20
  4. DesireeManagement

    I would like to welcome everyone to Virgin Galactic's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After this previous remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the star one again. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Ken Michaels, Vice President.

  5. Operator

    Please go ahead.

  6. Thank you.

  7. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Virgin Galactic's third quarter, 2026 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Michael Koglazier, Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Aarons, Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open. the call for questions. Our press release and slide presentation that will accompany today's remarks are available on our Investor Relations website. Please refer to slide two of the presentation for our Safe Harbor disclaimer. During today's call, we may make certain forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and, as a result, are subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made on this call. For more information about these risks and uncertainties, please refer to the risk factors in the company's SEC filings made from time to time. We are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and the company specifically disclaims any obligation to update the forward-looking statements that may be discussed during this call, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Please also note that we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial information on today's call. Please refer to our earnings release for reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial metrics. Please turn to page three in the slide presentation as I turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Michael Koglaser.

  8. Michael ColglazierCEO and President

    Hello, everyone.

  9. Thank you for joining the call today. We are the lead spaceship of our Delta-class fleet, Aperon, to Spaceport America in late October, and this milestone marked an exciting handoff from our manufacturing organization to our Spaceline operations team. The new spaceship is magnificent. And we're thrilled to have Aperon relocated to its permanent home. I'll start today's call by describing what's next for Aperon on the way to launching commercial space flights in early Q2, 2027, as well as... ...an update on the build of our second spaceship, which is expected to begin commercial space flight in late Q2 or early Q3, 2027. I'll share details of new growth initiatives, which we expect to drive substantial revenue and... ...profit growth, including a specific investment targeted to increase spaceflight capacity to 150 spaceflights per year from our initial two spaceships. I'll share some of the excitement we are hearing from our astronaut community, as we have advanced over 100... ...individuals into the readiness phase of their upcoming spaceflights. After that, I'll turn the call over to Doug for a financial review, which will include a discussion on our planned use of the new $250 million at-the-market equity...

  10. Douglas AhrensChief Financial Officer

    ...offering program, which was announced earlier today. Turning to page four, Aperon, the Greek word for boundless, is an auspicious name for the lead spaceship of our Delta-class fleet. It... reflects the spirit of our astronauts, and it inspires the ambitions of our company. Aperon is pictured here arriving at Spaceport America in New Mexico. It is now being prepared for its flight test program, but the heaviest activity... ...being the completion of software hardware integration testing. As previously announced, we required additional time to complete this effort. We've extended our schedule and bolstered resources to allow the teams to complete the effort. And I'm pleased with the thoroughness of the work and the pace of progress the teams are achieving. This added time has pushed back the start of flight test, which will commence with a captive carry flight above Spaceport America. Where we will conduct in-flight functional checks of the spaceship systems while staying mated to the launch aircraft flying at high altitude and cold temperatures. This will be followed by Aperon's first glide flight, which is expected in January. As previously. Aperon's first space flight is expected in early Q2, 2027. Moving to page five, I want to share highlights of the progress with the build of our second commercial spaceship. The images on. On this page show major parts of the wing, fuselage, and feather sub-assemblies for our second spaceship coming together.

  11. Our partners at Bell have been making excellent progress on the feather assembly, and we've already received over 95% of the carbon. composite parts for the wing and fuselage from Carbon Aerospace. We expect the last two major parts for the wing and fuselage to arrive in early December. This is great news. Our manufacturing team has already applied learnings from the build of our first spaceship to the build of our structural test articles to improve efficiency. These learnings are being applied to the second spaceship that is now moving to the factory. We expect this second spaceship will enter commercial service along outside Aperon in late Q2 or early Q3 2027, at which point we will begin to ramp our flight cadence towards 125 spaceflights per year. On that note, I'd like to move to page six to discuss some of our underlying assumptions around flight cadence. and capacity from our initial two spaceships. As we shared in the past, Aperon and the Delta-class spaceships that will follow have been designed for maintainability with a targeted flight cadence of two flights per week. per spaceship. With a two-ship initial fleet, this provides theoretical capacity for approximately 200 space flights per year. Our launch aircraft, EVE, has gone through multiple enhancement programs. to prepare for this flight cadence, and our teams are targeting EVE spaceflight launch capacity at approximately 175 flights per year. Thus, our theoretical baseline capacity, with two spaceships and EVE, is approximately 175 flights per year.

  12. We expect three factors will reduce this theoretical capacity to a lower actual spaceflight rate. The first two factors are flight day weather and unplanned maintenance activity. While weather in southern New Mexico is generally excellent for spaceflights, we do expect some flights to be scrubbed for rain or very high crosswind conditions. Although we can often recover intermittent scrub flights over the following week, we expect an efficiency reduction of approximately 25 flights per year from the combination of flight day weather and unplanned maintenance. The third factor impacting flight capacity is exposure to overnight weather conditions. We have traditionally conducted our fueling operations outdoors, which exposes our operation to overnight squalls that can also cause flights to be canceled. We have estimated an efficiency loss of approximately 25 flights per year from exposure to these overnight weather conditions. In combination, these three factors are expected to reduce our two spaceship operational capacity to 125 flights per year, which is the annualized rate we have been projecting for some time. I am pleased to share our teams have identified a way to structurally eliminate the overnight weather impacts and increase our operational capacity by 20% from 125 to 150. space flights per year. Moving to page seven, we've included a rendering of the high cadence launch hangar and fueling infrastructure, which will move fueling and preflight operations indoors and eliminate cancellations caused by overnight weather. When complete, we expect this growth investment to deliver 20%

  13. more annual space flights from our initial two spaceships. Because our cost base is largely fixed, a substantial portion of this revenue should flow through to the bottom line. On to page eight. This image shows our rocket production line coming to together as planned. This line will produce rocket motors for space flights in New Mexico, and it has expansion capacity to support additional spaceports. As many of you are aware, there is currently high demand for rocket systems within the government. and defense sectors. We believe our expertise in rocket design and production can be adapted to support these needs, and we plan to expand our rocket production capabilities with targeted growth investments as we pursue these opportunities. Before I hand the call over to Doug, I'd like to share a bit about the mobilization of our astronaut community and an update on the reopening of bookings for spaceflight expeditions. Please turn to page nine. As previously announced, we've advanced over 100.

  14. astronauts into the first phase of readiness preparation ahead of their spaceflight. And the image on this page shows the change in their astronaut portal that designates the countdown process has begun. As you can imagine. It has been a joy to make these calls and our astronauts have been overjoyed to receive them. As we ready the initial astronauts for their journey, we have once again opened a limited number of bookings for Virgin Galactic. Space flight expeditions. One of the most powerful drivers of our business is the love people have for this experience and the possibilities it embodies. When we reopen bookings at the end of Q3. We built on the success of our $750,000 tranche by opening an additional limited tranche at $850,000 per expedition. We continue to see meaningful demand at this price. And, like the last time, I expect the price of a spaceflight expedition will increase following the close of this current tranche. Our astronaut expeditions team is building a bookings model that can expand without compromising exclusivity. At its heart are referrals, which reflect the deep enthusiasm people have for our experience, and these referrals will be further supported with curated events, hosted experiences, and brand partnerships. I'll now hand the call over to Doug for a financial update.

  15. and insight into how we plan to deploy our capital.

  16. Management

    Thanks, Michael, and good afternoon, everyone. After market closed today, we announced a $250 million at-the-market equity offering program. We believe this is the total remaining amount of capital needed across three primary areas to fund operations through the ramp of commercial service and achieve positive free cash flow to invest in targeted growth initiatives. that are expected to yield high returns and to retire debt to improve our capital structure. Now, I'll spend a moment on each of these three areas. Turning to slide 10, first, as we announced previously, we've moved the expected start of commercial space flights to early Q2 2020. to complete additional work on software hardware integration testing. This date is approximately two months later than we planned. Therefore, a portion of this program will replenish cash as expected to carry us. through the ramp of commercial spaceflight operations. Additionally, this capital will also strengthen the balance sheet until we achieve positive free cash flow. Second, we want to invest in two specific growth opportunities. Turning to slide 11, Michael covered the operational benefits of a high cadence launch hangar, and I'll focus on the economic impact of this investment. On this slide, we've illustrated how the increase in flight rate from 120 to 150 flights per year provides $90 million of additional revenue and $75 million of contribution margin from our initial fleet of two spaceships. Because we can achieve this increase.

  17. Management

    And flights with the same fleet, the high contribution margin from these space flights should substantially flow through to the bottom line. You can see the economies of scale we plan to achieve with this high cadence launch hangar as we expect greater than 50% growth. adjusted EBITDA from our initial fleet when it becomes operational. The expected payback period for the hangar is less than one year. By allocating growth capital to this project in the near term, we expect to have the high cadence launch hangar operational in the second half of 2028. The second growth investment is in rocket production capabilities that Michael discussed. With a modest capital investment, we can increase our rocket production capabilities to pursue additional opportunities with a government and defense industry. Third, a portion of the proceeds from the ATM program will be used to pay down our future debt obligations. By allocating approximately one third of the ATM proceeds to debt retirement, as required by our lien holder agreement, we will improve our capital structure and reduce the interest expense on our first lien debt. Following the successful completion of these anticipated early payments, the outstanding balance of our first lien debt is expected to be reduced to approximately $92 million, which will not be due until December 31st, 2028. Separately, today we also announced an anticipated exchange of a significant portion of our 2027 convertible notes, which is planned for next week. We expect to retire more than $12 million of debt due in fact

  18. Management

    February 2027 by using stock rather than cash. Following this exchange, we expect the outstanding balance of our convertible notes to be reduced to around $5 million. Together, these actions bring our total outstanding debt below $100 million. Significantly reduce our interest expense and leave us with minimal principal payments due over the next two years as we scale spaceflight operations. Turning to slide 12, I'll briefly cover our financial projections. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to be approved. Approximately $100,000. Free cash flow for the fourth quarter is expected to range from negative $80 million to negative $90 million. Looking at the 2027 income statement, we expect revenue. We continue to commence early in the second quarter, and we forecast expenses and space line operations to increase as commercial space flights ramp up. We forecast positive free cash flow no later than the first quarter of 2028. In closing, we believe these actions to position us to enter commercial spaceflight operations with a stronger balance sheet and pursue near term growth opportunities with our initial two spaceships. Our revenue growth will be driven by two key factors. The number of flights we complete and the average price paid for the astronauts. Spaceflight expeditions. We expect meaningful revenue to begin when our first spaceship enters commercial service in early Q2, 2027, followed by additional growth as our second spaceship enters service in late Q2.

  19. Management

    or early Q3, 2027. Then, as we work through earlier reservations that were historically sold at lower price points, we also expect revenue to rise as higher priced spaceflight expeditions are flown. In 2028, we expect these drivers to reinforce one another. Higher price bookings are expected to make up more of our flights, while the planned high cadence flight hangar would increase annual flight capacity. More flights at higher average expedition prices would generate a additional revenue and contribution margin, further magnifying our profit generating potential. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Michael.

  20. Michael ColglazierCEO and President

    Thanks, Doug.

  21. Turning to page 13. Aperon's arrival at Spaceport America has shifted the company's focus to operations. As we now prepare for flight tests and ready ourselves to host astronauts and their friends and family as we commence commercial spaceflight. Doug outlined our capital plans. We are being purposeful and efficient with. our use of funds to achieve positive free cash flow, expand our profitability, and manage our debt in a balanced fashion. Our next step is to bring Aperon into the skies for its flight test program as we continue to build our. Second spaceship, expand our bookings and prepare to welcome our astronauts to space in 2027.

  22. Operator

    Let's open the call for questions. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. If you are called upon to ask your question and are listening via speakerphone in your...

  23. ...device, please pick up your handset to ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Again, press star 1 to join the queue. And our first question comes from the line of... It's Cheryl with TD Common. Your line is open.

  24. Hi, everyone.

  25. Thanks so much for the time. I just wanted to think about the schedule pushing up to the right a little bit. Do you see any risk? Between just giving everything you know now of a potential further slippage in 2027 and a buffer built into that schedule?

  26. Thanks, Tom.

  27. Michael ColglazierCEO and President

    Excuse me. This is Michael. The push on our schedule almost entirely is as we're working through what our teams would call software-hardware integration. And the software is done, the hardware is done. As you put those two together, we have a quite exhaustive testing process to ensure those things come together and they're all working as expected. We missed our expectations. I'll call it the project management standpoint as to how long is it going to take us to work through that effort. And so you saw us push back. And when you see a range of early Q2 versus a specific date, that builds in a degree of contingency on top of what we expect the team will actually do. Just to give a little bit of color as to what's going on, the ship, as I said, it's magnificent. It's beautiful. It's out of Spaceport America now. The software hardware integration... ...testing that we're doing has thrown kind of more test cases that need fixing than the team had a lot of themselves time for. And we need to give them that time. So just to give a couple examples, Tom, here for you and for everyone. Some of these things are... are quite small and simple. They're mostly about making sure data signals are moving to the right places in our display. So as an example, we have sensors all around the ship. They aggregate in what we call digital data acquisition units. DAUs. And we send, for discussion's sake, like 30 channels of information back up to the pilot displays. One of those is what's the position of our brakes. A completely different one is what's the position of our brakes.

  28. The position of our feather systems. And as we put the software hardware together, we realized those channels were swapped. And so they needed to be reprogrammed to display in the right positions on the pilot display. So that is a reasonably good point. It's clear. It's understandable. It's a straightforward software piece. I'll give another one. I'll call it important, but straightforward in what to do. As we've shared in the past, we have great redundancy build. Throughout our systems. And we don't just put the redundancy in. We test edge cases to ensure that the redundancy, if ever called upon, would work as planned. So we use these edge cases in both our simulations and in actual efforts. So I'll give you one example here. We have actuators. So when pilots are moving the control sticks, they move the flight control surfaces that are being pushed by actuators. And they're little computers. We call them controllers. That control the pace at which those actuators are moving. And we have redundant actuator controllers, right? It's one of the fall over places. So if there's ever a need to not use the primary actuator controller, and roll over to its backup in the software, is a reset time that we established in milliseconds. And that's a software piece. But when we actually got to test that on the ship, where you're actually moving it, and rolling over from one controller to the next, the timing that the hardware really needed was a little different in milliseconds. So okay, now that we've learned that, we need to redo the software. And then just to give a sense of why this is taking its time.

  29. While we're redoing the software, we also then write a very thorough test script that we will put that software through. When the test script is done, we then do a lot of checking on the test script. So that's done. The software is done. We then test it again, and we run regression testing to make sure that our changes didn't create any other changes. And all that takes time. And then when we get it done, like we did with this case, great, done. That one is subtle. And we move on to the next piece. But that process I described for the important things is the exact same process we follow for all the little things like I talked at the beginning. And so that's where a manageable number of these things is still. taking the time that we gave ourselves when we moved our schedule back. So hopefully that gives you a bit of sense of color. And as you ask at the front, we have allowed ourselves additional time in our projected dates beyond. What our software and hardware teams are targeting. Okay, great. That's really helpful. And if I could just take a quick follow up. How should investors think about the right blended rate for as you work through this backlog of earlier book. Reservations and then kind of get to a get to the you know 2028 and beyond just kind of curious just on the current timeline what the cadence could look like as you move through 27 and and into early 28 is how that blended rate kind of shifts over time.

  30. Thanks again for the time everyone. Sure I'll get a start and Doug feel free to come in and with it. So the pricing has stepped up from its origination at you know $200,000 for a space flight expedition to $250,000. to $450,000 to $600,000 to now then $750,000 and now $850,000. And by and large we plan to move through that in a sequential nature. As I said in the past, there are going to be a limited number of spaceflight expeditions where the person on that will end up being part of the first thousand people to space and we've shared in the past we have a very limited number of those. that we've put out at a substantially higher price point and we will blend some of those in by default because they'll need to be part of the first thousand people to space. you'll also see us blending in some. research flights that are priced usually up $750,000, $800,000 or so for a seat equivalent on the research that we do. so you'll see us mix. but as I said we will work to follow sequential order as best we can. so as you heard Doug mentioned we'll start our blended rate lower and then ramp that up so by the time we're at 28. and especially as that launch hanger comes in you'll start seeing things in the $600,000 to $800,000 range obviously that makes a big difference in flow through. Doug anything you'd like to add to that that you covered at all that was accurate.

  31. Operator

    I'm still there. Okay, we will now proceed to average. Next question comes from the line of Michael Leshock with KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is open.

  32. Question · KeyBanc Capital Markets

    Hey, good afternoon.

  33. I wanted to just ask on the cash burn as we look to one key. Twenty seven. Is there any reason that there would be a meaningful improvement or are you expecting the cash burn burn to be more gradual ahead of the first flight? I'm just trying to see if there's any reason to expect any. big step change in cash flow as you're working through the milestones to get to commercial service or does that not really change meaningfully until you're flying?

  34. Thanks, Mike.

  35. Douglas AhrensChief Financial Officer

    This is Doug. Yeah, so we gave. guidance for the fourth quarter to be in the range of negative 80 to 90 million in free cash flow. You know, just leaning forward a little more. Q1 of 2027 probably going to be in the same bar. Because there's not a real structural change during that time as we're gearing up for our first space flight. And then in Q2, you start to see some pickup because now we have inflows coming from customers in a more meaningful way. So that's where you start to see it turn up. But no increase, you know, in need or additional spending, you know, at a quarterly rate between now and the start of commercial service. And Doug, just sharing this, I know this, but just for clarity, that'll be a... ...ramp down in kind of the SpaceWorks team that are building the ship and a ramp up in the Spaceline teams that are re-operating the ship. And those things are just going to kind of cross each other on the way down and up and keep that balance. Yes, that's correct. So as we're winding... down the work in a Mesa that you're seeing as the spaceships come out, at the same time, we are seeing an increase in staffing and readiness for the start of commercial flight in those... In a good way. ...those offset, yeah. So it's supposed to be.

  36. Okay, got it. That's really helpful. And then, could you break out the expected capital that you need for the new high-cadence launch hangar and the fueling infrastructure? I see that was one of the primary uses. The proceeds called out in the ATM, and then you have the minimum $85 million or so to pay down the 28 debt. So, I'm just curious, what is remaining to allocate for the new hangar after general corporate and operational costs? Any color you could provide there would be great. Okay. Yeah. So, you got the debt buy down one, and you got the rise about $85 million towards that first lien debt. So, the next bucket is really the operating cost. While we're getting to the start of commercial service, and as we start to ramp. And so, let's say, let's just put it in perspective. We moved the schedule about two months. So, we put a little more buffer. On top of that, and we're putting about a quarter's worth of additional cash on the balance sheet to strengthen it. So, call that 100-ish. And then, you get to the third bucket, which is now the growth investments. And so, we're seeing this as the right. opportunity now that we're getting closer with the spaceships coming out and getting ready for commercial service. We want to make the most of that. So, we're going to put around 65-70 million into these growth initiatives. It's with the larger portion of that amount being the high-cadence launch hangar and a portion going to Rocket Motors, as we talked about.

  37. So, it's within that bucket of 65-70 million.

  38. Thanks so much.

  39. Operator

    Our next question comes from the line of Christine Liwa with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

  40. Question · Morgan Stanley

    Hi, this is Gabby Knopfelman on for Christine.

  41. Thanks for taking the question.

  42. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate on the government and defense applications that you're targeting with your rocket production capabilities. What do those customer conversations look like today and would they use your existing technology or acquire additional development and quality?

  43. Michael ColglazierCEO and President

    Hey, Gabby, it's Michael.

  44. Won't go too far today because I think these things are better, right, when something's actually clear than speculation. But our hybrid system has a benefit as you... You can adapt pressure through it. It's not the exact same as a throttle, but it has a throttling mechanism to it. So you can change the speed with that. And I think the place we will look first is how we might... adapt our rocket capabilities using some of that speed change and other capabilities to the testing market, right? There's a lot of testing going on in missile defense in particular, and the ability to create things that can be used in that test. process is growing and in need. So I think we'll start there as a almost a very direct lift from what we do, but our teams are quite skilled and there is a large market. So we're going to put some business development effort in there. And part of the growth capital that Doug was describing will expand some of our capabilities and use them to improve our own processes, but also give us some capabilities to do things we haven't done just for our own book of business. Got it super helpful thanks so much.

  45. Operator

    There are no further questions at this time ladies and gentlemen that concludes today's call.

  46. Thank you all for joining you may now disconnect.

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