SKYW earnings / call
SKYW Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, October 29, 2026
SkyWest, Inc. 3rd Quarter 2026 Results Call
Key takeaways from this call : results vs expectations, guidance, what analysts asked
- Management 15%
- Chip Childs 5%
- Analysts 12%
- Operator 4%
Transcribed automatically by Lician from the company's public webcast; it can contain errors and speaker names are best effort.
- Prepared remarks0:00
Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the SkyWest Inc. third quarter 2026 results call.
- Operator
After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Rob Simmons, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Thanks, everyone, for joining us on the call. As the operator indicated, this is Rob Simmons, SkyWest Chief Financial Officer. On the call with me today are Chip Childs, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wade Steele, SkyWest Airlines President and Chief Operating Officer, and Eric Woodward, Chief Accounting Officer. I'd like to start today by asking Eric to read the Safe Harbor. Then I will turn the time over to Chip for some comments. Following Chip, I will take us through the financial results. Then Wade will discuss the fleet and related flying arrangements. Following Wade, we will have the customary Q&A session with our cell-side analysts. Eric? Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions regarding future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result... of new information, future events, or otherwise. Actual results will likely vary and may vary materially from those anticipated, estimated, or projected for a number of reasons. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are included in our most recent Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And now, I'll turn the call over to Chip.
- Chip ChildsPresident and Chief Executive Officer
Chip. Thank you, Rob and Eric. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you again for joining us on the call today. Today, SkyWest reported net income of $120 million or $3.08 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2026. The third quarter's results include increased block hours and were affected by higher fuel costs impacting our pro-rate business. During the quarter, our people delivered 99.9% adjusted completion on over 230,000 flights. We were consistently a top three on. Long-time carrier on the DOT's consumer reports, and this is only possible with the teamwork of our more than 16,000 professionals. I again want to thank them for their great work through the quarter. We're consistently disciplined as we execute on our long-term business plans. In recent years, we have strategically positioned our company to withstand unexpected headwinds like the fuel volatility we are experiencing. Specifically, we have one. De-levered our balance sheet. We've continued to reduce our debt, and we now have $1 billion less debt than we did at the end of 2022. Overall, our debt ratios and leverage metrics are among the best in the industry. Second, we've invested in the fleet and continue to do so. During the third quarter, we took delivery of four new E-175 aircraft for United. From Q4 through the end of 2028, we will take delivery of at least 30 new E-175 aircraft. putting us over 300 in our fleet. Our model allows us to continue investing strategically in both the new E-175 fleet and conversions of our CRJ fleet, including the new CRJ-450, which will be placed into service later this year.
With these transitions, we look forward to ultimately operating an all-dual class fleet. And third, we've returned capital to our shareholders through our stock repurchase program. The resilience of our model is based on improving the cash flow quality of our earnings and strategically deploying our capital, not just against production metrics, but against value creation. We believe we are in an important window to continue to invest in our fleet, including the new E-175s in our order book under contract, as well as the 33 delivery slots beginning in 2027 for future opportunities. We're also positioned to continue to invest in CRJ. CRJ 550 and 450 conversions, CRJ heavy maintenance, and pilot training. We believe the investments we're making today will deliver economic benefits in 2028. Our approach to capital deployment, as always, will reflect our view of the best long-game strategy for our shareholders, our employees, and our partners. As the industry evaluates capacity in 2027 and beyond, we're in the best position to respond to markets. Market demands and our partners' needs in a dynamic environment. Overall, our discipline, strategic choices, and continued execution have strengthened our model. We remain engaged with our partners on navigating the headwinds of our industry better than anyone else. Rob will now take us through the financial data. Today, we reported a third-quarter gap net income of $120 million, or $3.08 earnings.
Q3 pre-tax income was $159 million, up 15% sequentially from Q2. Our weighted average share count for Q3 was $38.8 million, and our effective tax rate was 25%. Total Q3 revenue of $1.1 billion is up 6% from $1 billion in Q3 2025 on block-hour demand from our partners. and is up 1% sequentially from Q2 2026. Q3 revenue includes contract revenue of $866 million, prorate and charter revenue of $218 million, and leasing and other revenue was $33 million. These Q3 gap results include the effect of recognizing $23 million of previously deferred revenue this quarter, up from the $17 million recognized in Q3 2025, and down from $27 million recognized in Q2 2026. As of the end of Q3, we have $190 million of cumulative deferred revenue that will be recognized in future periods. Our prorate fuel expense in Q3 was $66 million, up from $34 million in Q3 2026.
The year-over-year increase of $32 million was due to both a higher price per gallon, a $22 million negative impact, and incremental prorate production, a $10 million impact. The fuel price per gallon on our prorate flying was $4.56 in Q3, up from $3.04. in Q3, 2025, and $4.45 in Q2, 2026. In Q3, we revised the estimated useful life on our E-175 fleet to 30 years based on demand for this aircraft and current industry practices. With this change, our Q3 depreciation expense was down $16 million, both from Q3, 2025, in Q3, 2025. And from Q2, 2026. Notwithstanding the puts and takes on our revenue and operating expenses this quarter, our Q3 pre-tax income was up $21 million sequentially from Q2, 2026. Now let's discuss the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash of $569 million, down from $601 million last quarter. The ending category. Cash balance for the quarter included the effects from repaying $119 million in debt, issuing $187 million of new debt, financing ongoing fleet deliveries, investing $163 million in CapEx, including the purchase of four E-175s, and buying back shares of SkyWest stock in Q3, consistent with prior periods. As of September. 30th, we had $238 million remaining under our current share repurchase authorization.
Cash flow continues to be the key driver of our value creation strategy. We generated over $700 million of EBITDA during the first three quarters of 2026, despite the headwind from prorate fuel cost. Since the end of 2025, we've invested over $400 million in CapEx. for fleet and related assets. Consistent with our practice, let me first update you on some color on 2026. For the full year 2026, we expect to see block hour production up approximately 5% from 2025, consistent with last quarter's outlook. We anticipate our GAAP EPS for 2026 will be in the $10.60 area. including the effect of ongoing fuel price volatility and crew training costs, up from our 2025 GAAP EPS of $10.35. Last quarter, we shared that our 2026 EPS estimates in the area of $11 assumed average jet fuel of $3.65 a gallon for the second half of 2026, on 28 million GAAP EPS. of jet fuel needed in the second half for our prorate business. Our Q3 actuals included fuel costs of $4.56 a gallon on 14.5 million gallons, a negative headwind of approximately $13 million, or $0.26 of EPS on our third quarter results. Our updated 2026 area of $10.60 EPS color assumed fuel costs of $4.90 a gallon on 14 million gallons in Q4. For other modeling purposes, we anticipate our depreciation expense in Q4 to be $80 million, up from $76 million in Q3. We also anticipate our effective tax rate for Q4 will be approximately 27%, translating to approximately 22% for the full year
of 2026, and we anticipate our total capex in 2026 will be approximately $725 million. For 2027, we expect block hour production to be up modestly in the 1% to 2% area from 2026, with EPS similar to 2026. Let me provide some additional color on our outlook for 2026. We anticipate recognizing approximately $70 million of previously deferred revenue in 2027, down from roughly $100 million anticipated for 2026. For comparability purposes, this estimated $30 million reduction represents a headwind of approximately $0.60 EPS in 2027 compared to 2026. I'd like to underscore this is a non-cash variance, and deferred revenue estimates are subject to change based on various factors, such as contract amendments and aircraft utilization. Recognizing less previously deferred revenue year-over-year is likely to be a modest non-cash revenue and non-cash EPS headwind over the next several years. Although our 2027 gap EPS outlook may be similar to 2026, the estimated non-cash gap headwinds of deferred revenue and higher depreciation in 2027 imply that they are being offset by other cash earnings, such as the new E175s and other fleet initiatives, improving the cash flow quality of our 2027 earnings. We are assuming an average price per gallon of $4 dollar. $4.30 on 60 million gallons in 2027 for our prorate business, essentially a flat price per gallon on average in 2027 over 2026. A hypothetical dollar of average fuel price reduction in 2027 from the $4.30 per gallon we are using in our 2027 color translates to $1.20 of incremental.
EPS. Our depreciation expense for 2027 is anticipated to be $350 million up from roughly $338 million expected for 2026. Reflecting the 18 new E175 deliveries in 2027 and the timing of other capex. EPS. We are estimating our effective tax rate for 2027 to range from $25. to 27% up from 22% anticipated for 2026. With respect to capex, we estimate our total 2027 capex to be in the area of $825 million up from approximately $725 million in 2026. Our anticipated 2027 capex includes approximately $525 million for 18 new E175 aircraft, which we anticipate financing through debt, approximately $200 million for recurring maintenance-related items, and the remaining $100 million for CRJ fleet initiatives, such as reconfigurations and spare engine opportunities. The year-over-year increase in capex is driven primarily by the delivery of 13 E175s in 2020. compared to 18 E175s expected in 2027. Wade? Thank you, Rob. During the quarter, we took delivery of four new E175 aircraft for United. We currently have 63 future E175s on firm order with Embraer, including 16 for Delta, 11 for American, and 2 for United. We expect delivery of... ...seven more new E175s during the fourth quarter, and 18 aircraft during 2027. As an update on the firm order of 63 aircraft, 30 are allocated to major partners, and 33 aircraft are not yet assigned. This order locks in delivery slots starting in 2027 through 2032.
However, the order is structured with good flexibility to defer or... ...terminate the aircraft in the event we don't arrange for a partner to take them. Our long-term fleet plan has positioned us well, and re-fleeting continues to be an important part of that strategy. With last quarter's announced agreement with American, our E-175 fleet total is scheduled to reach 300 by the end of 2027, continuing to enhance SkyWest position as the largest E-175 fleet. We are also looking forward to deploying the CRJ-450 later this year for United. We anticipate operating the first aircraft before year-end. We expect to have 40 CRJ-450s under contract with United, and we plan to retrofit our pro-rate CRJ-200s. We are optimistic the opportunity for the CRJ-450 may reach a total of 100 aircraft. As previously announced, we have a multi-year agreement to fly 50 CRJ-550s with United. As of September 30, 42 CRJ-550s were in service, and we expect the remaining eight to enter service by the middle of 2027. Let me review our production. Our block hours increased 1% from Q2 to Q3, 2026. We also expect a... ...like decrease in our Q4 block hours as compared to Q3 due to normal seasonality. For 2027, we anticipate that our block hours will be up 1% to 2% compared to 2026. Next year, we expect to take delivery of 18 new E-175s, place eight CRJ-550s into service, and capitalize on prorate demand.
These gains are partially offset by the gradual return of... the remainder of the Delta-owned CRJ-900s. We expect all Delta-owned CRJ-900s to be returned by the middle of 2027. We will also have several CRJ-200s out of service during 2027 as they convert to CRJ-450s. Once we get through the return of Delta's CRJ-900s by mid-2027, the production characteristics and cash earnings from executing on our E-175 delivery book and prorate will start reading through better in our results. The full impact of our 18 new E-175s coming next year won't show up in our results until 2028. As we convert aircraft and replace some aircraft with new deliveries, we have extensive optionality for value creation, including prorate flying, leasing aircraft or engines, or utilizing aircraft for parts as we navigate supply chain constraints. As we've discussed, we continue to face challenges in our third-party MRO network, including labor and parts shortages. We expect maintenance expense in 2027 to slightly increase from 2026 due to the modest increase in block hours. Demand for our prorate business remains strong, supported by great community engagement, during the first nine months of 2026, we added 16 aircraft for our prorate agreements to support the growing demand. We still see opportunities to restore SkyWest service to several small communities and will continue working with airports to expand our reach. As discussed last quarter, growth in our prorate business contributes to a more seasonal model.
We remain confident in our ongoing efforts to reduce risk and enhance fleet flexibility, and we are committed to collaborating with our major partners to deliver innovative solutions that meet the continued demand for our products. Okay, operator, we're ready for the Q&A now.
- Q&A20:46
- Operator
We will now begin the Q&A session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question,
- Operator
press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Thomas Fitzgerald with TD Cowan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Everyone, thanks very much for the time.
Question · TD Cowan
Thomas FitzgeraldAnalyst, TD CowanCan you just unpack the block hour growth in 2027? Are those E175s back-weighted, just given the magnitude of those and then the kind of drop-off in growth versus this year? Any color in that would be really helpful.
- ManagementManagement
Hey, Tom. Yeah, this is Wade. So yeah, the 175s, we have deliveries throughout the year, but the majority of the Delta ones are towards the end of the year for sure. And so, yeah, we won't see all of the benefit of that block hour. Until, really, until 2028 as we get into this. So yeah, there's still good opportunities out there for us, but a lot of this is going to support 2028, what we've got going on. Okay, and then just as a quick follow-up, is most of the improvement in cash earnings next year, is that pretty much just a mix from the new E175s? Is there any from the CRJ450 conversions and anything else? I just want to make sure kind of following all the moving. pieces on next year. Thanks again for the time. Yeah, thanks, Tom. Yeah, you know, as we talked about, we'll be receiving nice cash earnings next year that'll be offsetting some of the non-cash headwinds that we've got with deferred revenue and depreciation. So, you know, the fact that, you know, our color is for flat EPS year over year sort of doesn't include the improvement in the cash flow quality. of earnings, you know, given how we're making up for the non-cash headwinds.
- Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Dwayne Fenegorth with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Evercore ISI
Dwayne FenegorthAnalyst, Evercore ISIHey, thank you. And I appreciate the early thoughts on 2027. I wonder if you can give some perspective. On the magnitude of the headwind from prorate year over year, you know, maybe versus the second quarter. Fuel obviously is a bit higher, but do you feel like you're catching up, you know, on the revenue side of the house? Is that headwind actually diminishing as you look forward?
- ManagementManagement
Hey, Dwayne, this is Wade. Yeah, so as we talk about our script, we've had a very... Very nice year in growth in prorate. We've added 16 airplanes to the fleet for prorate. We are seeing, just like our major partners, we're seeing very nice yield increases. We're seeing still very good demand from, you know, the ticket sales and all of that. So we are seeing that. We will not offset 100% of the fuel increase, but we are making consistent progress that our major partners are. Thanks. I mean, you probably won't bite on this, but, you know, your margins are so consistent historically. And if I just look at year-over-year pre-tax margins, they're getting closer year-on-year here in the third quarter. Now, some of that might be the depreciation change, but it feels like it's a pretty obvious margin tailwind in 2027. And it feels like you've kind of given up, you know, who knows. But it feels like you've given a pretty conservative fuel outlook for next year. Well, I would just say this, and this is Rob, that, you know, as we mentioned, you know, with similar year-over-year EPS results, that also assumes, you know, similar fuel costs. And that, you know, a dollar difference on that fuel cost next year translates to $1.20 of EPS. Potentially, at some point, you know, we're not sure when we get to harvest that, but presumably that's out there at some point. So that'll have an impact on that as well.
Thanks, Rob. I guess just to stay on that point, maybe the EBIT headwind or the pre-tax headwind from prorate in 2026, are you assuming that's flat? That does not change in 2027? So are you assuming any, you know, revenue or unit revenue progress on that's not going to happen? Rorate or basically flat unit revenues, but, you know, flat fuel and a similar contribution? Yeah, Duane, this is Chip. I think where you're going in the direction that you're asking the question is pretty spot on. I think we're going to stay at this point consistent with what our partners have said, consistent with that strategy. We're going to be, I think, conservative in our approach during 2027 relative to what we think yields are going to do as well as what fuel costs are going to do. I think it's. That's a prudent thing to do from a disclosure perspective and a predictive perspective, but most importantly, also a strategic perspective as well. So I think we probably came in Q1 and Q2. I think the world thought that some of these energy costs might be temporary and go away. We saw a little bit of that during the year, but I think from our perspective now, it's important for us to not make any predictions about what oil is going to do, but make sure we give you a clear model and what you're saying about consistency with 2026 is is pretty spot on. OK, very clear. Thank you.
- Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.
- Operator
Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Oh, yes. So given just the fuel price, presumably the prorate business is not nearly as profitable. Maybe maybe even some of those routes are loss making. I know you talked about adding 16 aircraft and to prorate this. And so driving good growth. But is that, you know, for next year, are we seeing is the plan to add more airplanes to prorate? So if you could just answer that and kind of give me a sense of maybe not providing margins, but how much more profitable your fixed fee businesses relative to your prorate, given the fuel price. Thanks. Yeah. So as we said in the script, we added 16 airplanes. Next year, we're going we're looking at market. We're working with communities. The demand continues to be there and strong from our communities. We're going to be extremely patient and disciplined in what we add to the into our into our models going forward. You know, we need to make sure these markets are accretive and add value to the company. So we'll be very patient with that. You know, if we need to wait a while, we'll wait. Right. We're fine waiting. That's why we, you know, we talk about this fleet flexibility. This is exactly what it is. You know, we can just wait and be patient for that. And so, you know, we're only going to add stuff that's, that's accretive to the company. Yeah, Mike, I, this is Chip. I'd also add to, to, to Wade's comments that, that the, I mean, look, the model is still doing well. We're not at all to clarify. We're not, we're not concerned about the pro rate model.
I think from our perspective, I think that certainly when you anticipate that we're in a situation, our energy costs are going to be extended instead of temporary. It's the times when I think this is where we really take care of our partners, our people and shareholders and approach it from a patient view, although the demand is still very, very strong. I mean, one thing that we're seeing in small communities that demand is not going away. How we execute on that demand is it looks a little different than it did, you know, six months ago or eight months ago. And we're still in a fantastic position with our fleet and we're going to be disciplined and patient as we, as we execute. Okay. And then just, Rob, you, you highlighted the trigger to change depreciation. Can you tell us what, what was it before and, and, and what did you go, go to?
Yeah. So for the E-175 fleet, Mike, we were at 22 years and we extended that to 30 years consistent with other practices in the industry. It also, I mean, had to do with some successful contract extensions that we recently got done as you, as you probably remember, the fact that there's no alternative to the E-175, you know, regional aircraft at this point, our experience with the CRJ fleet and how long we've been able to operate those and expect to continue to do that. And, and just the fact that demand for this airplane remains very strong. Was, just so I know, the 22 years, was that down to? a certain residual value? What was that? And the 30, what, what residual, are you going to 15% or, or 0%? I'm just, I'm trying to see how much the rate of depreciation has actually come down. Yeah. So the, the residual, the, the residual assumed came down as well. Okay. Okay. All right. Um, all right. I guess just one quick last one, since I have you. Um, on the smaller shelves, you know, or the aircraft with less seats, you know, typically in a high fuel price environment, you know, airlines typically want to fly less of that. Um, I guess since a lot of your smaller shelves on our own pro rate, and so I guess you're bearing the cost, you're probably not getting pushback from your partners. I mean, is that, is that the way to think about it? No, I, I, Mike, this is Chip. I, I think that that is not an assumption.
that you should make that the partners are pushing back. I think particularly one is extremely excited about the smaller aircraft. And if you see the LOPA and some of the things we're doing to the 450, it's going to be a great product. As you can imagine in the economy that we're living in now, relative to what our other, our partners have said relative to premium, you know, premium revenue, you know, putting first class seats on a CRJ 200. And a very good Lofa with an outstanding interior is a very valuable aircraft. And, you know, from a fuel perspective, it's also a lot lighter than it is with 50 passengers in it. So to a certain extent, the way that these assets are extremely valuable and debt-free, and we have some flexibility, maintenance is obviously a little bit higher than on the ERJ product, but the economics of this, particularly the smallest aircraft, seem to be a little bit higher than on the ERJ. Please.
Okay. Able to work out well, even with these fuel costs. So from that perspective, again, this is why we outlined that we're going to an all-dual class B, because we're matching what you're hearing throughout the economy right now. Tip, is it these airplanes, these investments, these are like 10 or 15-year investments, right? I mean, I realize the CRJ200s are fairly old, but it seems like if you maintain them well enough, this is something that you could be flying from the 10 to 15 years. Maybe that's the best way to think. It's rather than focusing on where the fuel price is today, but that this is a long-term investment. Yeah, I think you've summarized it very well, Mike. I think that this is a long-term investment in a high-energy cost environment that causes some patience. But again, you know, SkyWest has had an exceptional record. Our people have done a phenomenal job maintaining these airplanes from the get-go. And how they've, you know, done that has enabled us to do some things today that maybe a lot of other situations. Situational carriers are not able to do. Our people are great. They've got a great strategy with this. The partners are outstanding in working through this. And I think we're very excited about the long-term product that we're going to have with these airplanes. Okay, great. All right. Thanks for taking my questions.
- Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Savi Scythe with Raymond James. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Raymond James
Savi ScytheAnalyst, Raymond JamesHey, good afternoon. Just maybe a quick follow-up on Mike's question. Just with the kind of re-evaluation of the useful life for the 175, did the valuation on that change at all in the sense that, you know, is the kind of the unplushed assets around a billion and a half still, or where is that today? Yeah, Savi Rob here. So, your question on unpledged assets continues to be very strong. You know, it's over, you know, a billion and a half dollars, as we've said, other places. And, you know, we would anticipate that we continue to have strong, you know, capital availability if we need it related to, you know, related to these unpledged assets that we have and continue to grow. That's helpful. And then just on the, I think Wade mentioned on the kind of the CRJ transition, 200 transition next year, you know, many will be out. Just curious what the experience so far has been on how long it's taking to do those, you know, 450 conversions, if it's kind of any different than the 550s. And I'm curious just generally how much fewer aircraft you have flying because of the transition next year that maybe kind of goes away kind of after next year or maybe in a couple of years once you've done that full transition.
- ManagementManagement
Hey, Tavi, that this. That's a great question. So on the CRJ 450, we are still in the process of converting the first two airplanes. We have them down right now. We're working with our OEM partners on the service bulletins to get those done. So obviously the first airplanes just take longer naturally, just because you're working through the first time issues, right? We'll work through those. We've seen those before as we've done the 550. So we anticipate that the CRJ good, okay? 450 and the 550 conversions will be very, very similar. It takes two to three weeks to do these conversions. We're also putting Wi-Fi on all of these airplanes. We're very excited about that. And so we'll have a very nice product at the end of it. We do anticipate pulling down, you know, three or four lines, you know, to do these conversions, right? And so there will be three or four lines down of less flying that we could have been doing if we didn't have these going. And so we'll see you in the next video. It will, you know, it's an investment year that we're going to be doing in the fleet. 2027, we'll be converting a lot of airplanes. And so, you know, it'll take some time, but, you know, it's a great investment, as we've talked about in the future for this fleet. Great. And anytime I might just squeeze one line, but I noticed that one of the Delta aircraft should ship from 27 to 28. Was that just an Embraer delivery timing, or was there something more to that?
The Delta delivery, it's just timing. It's just timing and just cleaning up some of the delivery schedules with our, with our, you know, with Embraer. So there is nothing significant there at all. Perfect. All right. Thank you.
- Operator
Your next question comes from the line of John Godden with Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Citi
John GoddenAnalyst, CitiHey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. This is Max on for John. You know, we saw, you know, a decline. in load factor this quarter year over year. You know, does this reflect any softening in the strong demand previously cited for the pro-rate business? Or did you observe lower load factors on, like, the mainline partner routes? Or is this in line with some of the similar trends we've seen, you know, this EPS season, you know, trading loads for higher yields, you know, across the network? No, John, this is Chip. You know, I don't, I'm honestly not reading too much into that, obviously, from the perspective. of how we price and some of our partners may price relative to fuel. It may be pushing some of those loads, you know, down and around just slightly in a little bit. I would more be concerned, you know, about the total revenue and that type of stuff. I think when you have high fuel costs, revenue strategies are different for our partners relative that may have an impact on our load factor, but we're not, you know, I mean, we're seeing, I will tell you, extremely full flights still. So, um, a lot of. Activity, lots of volume, all of the things that we've seen from an operational perspective, we're not seeing anything backing off from any of that type of stuff. So, um, certainly I would, I would point to some of the things that the partners are pricing and how they're managing, uh, our lift on, on their side. And from our perspective, it's still extraordinarily high load factors and very, very busy.
- ManagementManagement
Thank you. Good caller. And then just kind of switching gears a little bit, you know, you mentioned earlier, you know, you're well positioned to invest in, you know, various avenues, giving you your liquidity. Position, including, you know, for the aircraft conversions, heavy maintenance, you know, share repurchases and et cetera. I just want to double click on this and dialogue on your high level capital deployment strategy over the next few years in any area of the focus we can expect.
Yeah. So it's a great question. They, you know, from a capital deployment strategy, I think we've been fairly consistent in that and we'll continue to do much of the same. I mean, our favorite investment is always. It's investing in our fleet and the flexibility of our fleet. And we've got a heavy delivery year coming up in 2027, taking 18 new E175. So, you know, obviously from a, you know, a capital standpoint, the chance for us to continue to invest in these accretive and cashflow generative E175, it's our favorite thing to do. But, you know, there's other investments that we'll be making in capital. CapEx next year, where I think you'll start to see CapEx probably come down starting in 2028 a little bit. And, you know, we'll continue to deploy capital much the same way we have, including, you know, including all the fleet opportunities that are in front of us right now.
- Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Katie O'Brien with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Question · Goldman Sachs
Katie O'BrienAnalyst, Goldman SachsPlease go ahead. Hey, good afternoon, guys. Maybe just coming back to the potential on CRJ 550 and 450 conversions, how many of your CRJ 200 and CRJ 700 are currently off contract or will come off contract in the next 12 months? And then on the demand part of this equation, you know, do current conversations with your partners point to the possibility of all that potential capacity, like maybe winding up in CPA or pro-rate flying? Um, in those new configs, you know, I know you've given that number on maybe up to 100 CRJ450s, but just would love to get the holistic picture across both supply and demand. That's a great question. Um, so we'll start with the CRJ200 and CRJ450s. As I said in my script, we have an agreement with United to fly 40 CRJ450s, um, for, for a multi-year contract. So those are all under contract now. Um, we're bringing those into service. Right now we'll bring those into service during 27 and 28. And so this will build in those years. We are operating about, um, 50 to 60 CRJ200s in prorate, and that number will be fairly consistent. So, as we said in our script, we have about a hundred. We'll have about a hundred of these CRJ450s under a long term agreement with United. We still have about 20 to 25 parked, um, beyond the. 100 that that are potentially out there that we can bring back as well. As far as the CRJ 700s, once we take delivery of some of the 175s and some of the other fleet transitions that we're doing, we'll have 20 of them that are not under contract. And so we have not put those.
- ManagementManagement
Block hours in our model at the moment, we do not have those allocated. We have very good opportunities to place those 700s in the future, whether. be in our leasing business or our prorate business or CPA. We'll work with our major partners on that. We'll be very patient as we work through this in the next couple of years, you know, as these airplanes kind of come out as we take new deliveries. And so just like we've always done, we'll be patient, we'll be disciplined with those airplanes, and we'll find a very good home for those. Okay, great. And then, Rob, I hope you'll look at me just for one more question. on the depreciation change, but was the $16 million year-over-year change you referenced, was that the savings from the accounting change? Are there some other moving pieces there? And then, what's the outlook for the impact of 4Q? And, you know, was the change contemplated in your update to guidance last quarter, you know, or not guidance, but color? The 2026 EPS would be in the $11 range. Just trying to get a sense of some of the moving pieces. Yeah, Katie, the $16 million is the... savings in Q3. As we said, you know, we do expect depreciation to be up in both Q4 and up in 2027, you know, for modeling purposes. But there was a $16 million savings during the quarter. And that carries forward, right? Like, will that run rate or it's a one-time or? Forgive me for the... No. Yeah, this...
The change, you know, was effective for our 175 fleet. And so that remains intact for the foreseeable future. Okay, got it. And then maybe just one more, if you'll allow it. But on the 33 delivery slots with Embraer that are yet to be placed, how far in advance do you need to let Embraer know that you'll be taking those aircraft? And then on the 30 that already are spoken for, are those using up the slots on the earlier? Inside of that 27 to 2032 window such that the 33 other slots not yet claimed are kind of further out? Any color that would be helpful. Thanks so much for the time. Yeah, that's a great question. This is Wade. So on the 33 that are unallocated at the point, those are in the very, very back half of 2028. And so in order to firm those up, it's a little more than a year that we need to work with Embraer on that. And so, as you know, we constantly... We constantly work with our major partners on very good opportunities for those. And so we have those. The 30 that are coming, you know, as we said in my script, we have seven that are coming at the end of...in the fourth quarter of this year. We have 18 next year. And so those are all coming. But the unallocated ones are, you know, out there at the end of 2028. At this point, they start at the end of 28 and go 29 and 30. So... Okay. Thanks so much for the time.
- Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Chip Childs for closing remarks.
- Chip ChildsPresident and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Al. Again, we want to thank everybody and their interest in SkyWest and dialing in and listening to our third quarter results. We appreciate the things that we're trying to do. Again, I can't, you know, go on without thanking the 16, over 16,000 professionals that do a phenomenal job, the best in the industry every single day. You know, we're grateful for the shareholders. We're grateful for the relationship we have with our partners as well. And we look forward to giving an update on our Q4 in three months from now. Thanks again.
- Operator
This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.