FLUT earnings / call
FLUT Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, November 4, 2026
Events Platform - Q4
Key takeaways from this call : results vs expectations, guidance, what analysts asked
- Management 17%
- Rob 3%
- Analysts 23%
- Operator 4%
Transcribed automatically by Lician from the company's public webcast; it can contain errors and speaker names are best effort.
- Prepared remarks1:24
To Flutter's Q3 update call, with me today are Flutter CEO Dan Taylor and CFO Rob Coldrake. After this short intro, Dan will set out his immediate priorities alongside the operational progress we made in Q3. Rob will then share an overview of our Q3 financials as well as updated details on our outlook. We will then open the lines for Q&A. Some of the information we are providing today, including our 2026 guidance, constitutes forward-looking statements that involve risks.
But our decisive actions to increase share of wallet by returning more to customer and to accelerate our product roadmap are beginning to pay off, delivering market share gains in August and September. I am confident we are taking the right decisions to deliver FanDuel's long-term success. I believe sportsbooks offer a superior proposition versus prediction market, and our consumer research and customer analysis continues to support this conclusion. We are, however, beginning to see an impact on our media.
And we have a clear pipeline of further improvements from here. We will leverage the nationwide strength of the FanDuel brand to acquire customers, and we can now service existing customers nationwide.
We are investing at a level that we believe will position as well for the long term, balancing the need to operate at scale in targeted states against the regulatory uncertainty in this space. Initial trading volumes are encouraging, almost trebling in October when compared with July, reflecting our experience. Accelerated product roadmap. The behaviour of the customers we require look like typical sportswear customers, giving us confidence in their long term value. We're also using our leading expertise in pricing sports events to participate as a market maker and help fund our prediction market. acquisition spend. We're making excellent progress here and we're going to try to deliver our market making guidance for 2026. Third, in international, we have built a portfolio of regional powerhouses with number one positions in many of the world. largest regulated markets. Our scale allows us to invest in better products and customer experiences, while our diversified business delivers resilient growth when individual markets face regulatory or economic change. My immediate focus is on delivering continued product improvements and customer experiences to drive consistent execution, sustained growth and further market share gain. We've made good strategic progress during the quarter with market share gains in the UK and Ireland, Italy and across CE. Our successful integrations in Italy, UKI and PokerStars are unlocking meaningful revenue upside and cost benefits. We're taking share in Italy on the back of an advantaged product and having delivered this into SNI, we see plenty of...
further upside to come. In the UKI, we saw strong double-digit gaming growth on the back of record engagement during the World Cup. And we believe our recently announced restructuring right sides of the business going forward, persisting... ...as well to take market share gains in the post-tax environment by protecting our investment in the customer. We were clearly very disappointed with the government provisional measure banning online sports betting and gaming in Brazil. With the right regulation, Brazil could still be an attractive market. However, the level of uncertainty and the already challenging regulatory environment that developed prior to the ban... ...me were taking a cautious view of the outlook at this point in time, determining the non-cash write-down recorded in our Q3 results. Following the ban, we have acted decisively. We took immediate steps to restructure our business to focus on Bet National as our... ... sole brand in Brazil and are ready to resume operating if and when the market returns. Despite the regulatory challenges we have faced over the last 12 months, I feel very confident that our diversified international portfolio is now well set to leverage the transformations and cost efficiencies we've delivered, to take full advantage of our global scale, to continue to take market share and deliver... ...against our target of 5 to 10% annual growth. Fourth, simplifying our operating model. The next phase of Flutter will be more streamlined to maximise the benefits of scale and ensure we can do non-customer facing work once. This will help us remove complex...
...move faster, reduce costs and improve cash generation, allowing us to invest organically in the areas that deliver the highest returns, whilst also deleveraging the balance sheet. In addition to our existing international cost... ...transformation and UK gaming tax mitigation programmes, we expect to deliver an additional 500 million in gross operating cost and capital expenditure savings by 2029. And the work to deliver this is well underway. In the US, these efficiencies create the room to invest behind our next stage of growth. Internationally, we expect these benefits... ...to support our previously projected long-term 5% to 10% growth, while helping protect adjusted EBITDA margins through regulatory and tax changes. Looking ahead, I am encouraged by the momentum we are building. We're making deliberate... ...choices to secure FanDuel's long-term success. In international, consistent execution and further scale benefits should enable continued profit growth despite regulatory pressures. Realising the full... ...of Flutter's exceptional set of assets and opportunities will require hard choices, faster decisions and strong execution. I know confidence is earned through delivery and that is what I'm focused on. While I'm only five weeks into my new role, I'm already clear on my immediate operational priorities. I look forward to showing more on our strategy alongside our Q4 results in February.
And with that, I'll now turn it over to Rob to talk you through the financials and outlook.
- RobManagement
Thanks, Dan. And hello, everyone. I'll cover three areas today. Q3 results, balance sheets and capital allocation and our updated guidance and outlook. We start with the Q3 results. US Sportsbook performance was ahead of expectations and we gained market share in international consistent execution and the benefits of our transformation programs delivered share gains. Across core markets including UKI and SEA. This underlying momentum was partly offset by adverse sports results resulting in group revenue growth of 2% in Q3. Adjusted EBITDA declined 25% reflecting our investments in Alberta and prediction markets alongside higher UK gaming taxes. Partly mitigated through cost actions. While reported EBITDA was down this reflects deliberate investment and specific external factors rather than a deterioration in the underlying trajectory of the business. As Dan mentioned we have taken a prudent view on Brazil resulting in a non-cash impairment charge of £870. This charge, together with an increase in legal loss contingencies, drove a reported net loss in Q3. Moving to the balance sheet, we ended Q3 with leverage of 4.2%. While this is elevated, we expect to deleverage significantly through 2027 and remain committed to returning to our 2-2.5x target range over the medium term. Capital allocation priority is clear, continue to invest behind our highest return growth opportunities, deleverage the balance sheet and only then consider returning additional capital to shareholders.
As a result, we've decided to pause the existing share repurchase programme for the foreseeable future. Free cash flow including financing capex and excluding player funds improved by 22% year over year. We also successfully refinanced our revolving credit facility and term loan A, extending our debt maturity profile providing additional financial flexibility at competitive rates. Now moving on to our updated guide. for 2026 and our early thinking about US investment into 2027. Q4 trading has been in line with our expectations on an underlying basis, although sports results have been unfavorable in both the US and internationally. We have therefore updated our full year guidance to reflect the unfavorable Q3 and Q4 sports results and the closure of Brazil, partly offset by further cost actions. This reduces our full year group revenue midpoint guidance of 300. million dollars to 17.61 billion and a reduction in full year adjusted EBITDA guidance of 160 million to 2.495 billion dollars. Additionally, group transaction restructuring and integration costs will now be approximately 620 million dollars reflecting an increase of approximately 120 million from our previous expectations primarily due to the increase in legal loss contingencies. Additional detail on our 2026 guidance is available in today's release. Looking further ahead to 2027. in the US. Improving customer trends and sportsbook performance give us confidence to continue reinvesting underlying growth into the customer proposition. Our promotional spend is expected to remain at similar levels in Q4 and throughout 2027.
resulting in a broadly flat net revenue margin year over year and at this early stage we expect our 2027 marketing intensity to remain at the elevated levels we have observed for 2026. On prediction markets, as Dan outlined, we believe we are increasingly well positioned to capture this opportunity. We expect investment in this area to continue at similar or higher levels given the early momentum we are seeing. We also expect cost of sales as a percentage of revenue tracking at 58% for 2026 to remain at the same level in 2027. So while Q3 reported earnings were impacted by investment, sports results and some one-off items, I am encouraged by the underlying trajectory of the business. We are improving the US proposition, continuing to invest behind our strongest growth opportunities and taking a disciplined approach to capital allocation and deleveraging. Together, these actions give... ...as confidence that we are building a stronger and more valuable FLUTTER for the long term. As usual, we will give our full guidance for 2027 alongside our Q4 results in February. And with that, Dan and I are now happy to take your questions.
- Q&A24:35
- Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to two questions and ask both up front. To ask your questions, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your questions, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimal sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to un-
- Operator
mute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Ed Young from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Morgan Stanley
Ed YoungAnalyst, Morgan StanleyHello. Two questions, please. First of all, thank you, Dan, for the initial strategic commentary you set out in the shareholder letter and your prepared remarks. Even though it's early, it's very useful framing. Could I ask you to give a bit more colour on capturing the prediction markets opportunity? How do you see the relative importance of scaling on the B2C side versus, say, market making and how to get the right balance? Investment, given the regulatory uncertainty and, frankly, your late start. And then the second is on Italy. You've talked about market share gains there. The presentation clearly shows that's really being driven by C-cell. You've had SNI integrated for a little while now. Is there anything that's holding back SNI from starting to capture the same level of growth as C-cell? Or how should we think about the ability for SNI to be a contributor to market share gains through 27? Thanks.
- ManagementManagement
Hi, Ed. Look, thank you for those. I'll take those in turn. So, look, on the predict side. We've talked about, let's say, three things. The first thing on the product side, which I think is really an important enabler, is, being candid, the product when I first went over to FanDuel in the spring was not competitive. I think the team have made tremendous progress on the product in the last few months, and the pace of delivery has really, really impressed me. And the results we're seeing are very good. We obviously have one app live now, but it's really only been live at scale. customers since the start of the NFL season. The results we're seeing from that in terms of metrics around retention, frequency, it's starting to look, a parlay percentage, it's starting to look a lot like our sportsbook in terms of those metrics. And we had about 140,000 actives on the platform in October. But look, you're right in saying it's early days, right? And the... It's hard to get the balance right in terms of the economics there. We're acquiring a materially lower CPAs than our sportsbook. And we can see a pathway to materially improving the LTVs as we go forward. We've got our own FCM license now available to... which will be a step in the right direction there. So there's lots of things we can do to keep improving the economics. But they are uncertain. And we need to be disciplined about the returns we get. I think we're confident about returns in more return, less returns in states where...
We have a higher prospect of OSB. That gives us more certainty. But as the economics and the player behaviours start to evolve over the next few months, I think we'll get a clearer view on how much we can spend economically on the B2C side, as we've only really been going for a couple of months in anger there. On the B2B side with market making... This is really at the heart of FLUT's capabilities. We've made great progress there. We're now trading across multiple exchanges, across multiple sports. I think our ability on the complex parlays is a real differential. We're on track to deliver the guidance that we did, and we've only really been live for, obviously, the second half of this year. So that's a really exciting near-term revenue and profit generator. The B2C side is probably... We need to leverage the plan for the long-term franchise. On Italy, I'm pleased to ask that question. I think it's a great question. If I look at when we acquired the SNI business, one of my hypotheses was it's an amazing brand. It's probably one of the iconic brands in Italy. I think the product on it was poor. And I think that we have the very best product in the market on CSAL, the best sports. We have the best gaming products. I feel very good about it. We migrated the SNI product onto the SCA platform in the summer. You always have a bit of a drop in market share at the point of migration. And we bounced back to the pre-migration levels faster than any migration we've ever done in Flutter's history. And I think the trajectory is very good from here.
A little bit of degradation prior to the migration which was on the old product. It dropped at the point of migration, bounced straight back, and is now higher than it was pre-migration. And it now has all the same product features, capabilities, and drivers that has underpinned these. T-cell strength. So I'm very excited about where we take SNI over the next 12, 24 months and longer. I think it's a big opportunity for us. Thanks very much.
- Operator
Your next question.
- Operator
It comes from the line of Brent Montour from Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. So I want to follow up on the iGaming commentary. I think you said, you know, moving through the maturity curve. You guys obviously have a ton of international data and history with iGaming products. You know, what does the maturity curve look like to you when you look at your. Or historical data sets. Does it feel like a market that can kind of bounce back to growth levels that we saw earlier this year or does it you know generally follow a pretty obvious.
Thanks Brad. So if you look at Q3 I think the market grew about 13% on a GDR basis which is below where we saw the growth in H1 and that doesn't hugely surprise. We think that is consistent with this level of moderation and growth that we would expect for water markets in these states that have been around for some time now. We have seen an international market. Long-term growth at high single, low double digits for the long term. So I don't see that. That wouldn't be the case here. But we are seeing that moderation. Obviously, for FanDuel, we had some specifics in Q3 last year. Where we had a very strong release of a game, which meant that we were lapping that, which put some pressure onto our comps. But we feel very good about our competitive proposition and how we maintain that. And grow that going forward. The other thing I'd add on the gaming side is in the quarter, we obviously went live in Alberta. Alberta is the first new gaming state. I know it's a Canadian province, but for some time. And the success there has astounded us. Our pace of customer acquisition was materially faster than Ontario. We've reached 20% plus market share on the gaming side within the first quarter, which is already... We're well ahead of where we thought we would be, particularly given there were existing grey market operators in that state beforehand. So I think the success in Alberta gives us real confidence and conviction about the opportunity...
for iGaming as we expand the TAM. And obviously we're only penetrating from a TAM perspective 10% of the US population today, and there's a lot more to play for there.
That's really helpful. And then a follow-up question on... maybe for Rob on sports net revenue margin, looking for a number roughly flat year over year. And it says, you know, you said reflecting continued promotional level. Can you just maybe double click on that? You know, if we think about promotional level at the exact same level. Then, you know, you're not necessarily implying a lift in any structural margin from parlay mix. And so maybe that's not the right way to read that. And if you are going to have a. Slightly higher promotional spend annualizing what you did in the second half of 26, you know, what kind of structural parlay lift would you need to see in 27 year over year to pay for that, you know, uplift in promotional spend? Hopefully that. Makes sense. That does make sense. Hi, Brent. So, yeah, we are seeing the net revenue margin when we look out to 2027 at the moment being relatively consistent. We've always said that we expect further parlay. Metration over time and enhancing our structural gross wind margins. And we expect that to continue in 2027. If you think about levels of generosity in 2026, we deliberately. Up to our investment from Q2 onwards, we're going to need to annualize that spend year on year, which means that the promo cost goes up and that's how you kind of get back to a similar net revenue margin. I think when you look out longer term, I think we are confident that we can still grow the overall structural margins and the net revenue margin within the business.
I think we see this as more kind of temporary to medium term. Given some of the dynamics that we're seeing in the market at the moment. Great. That makes sense. Thanks, everyone.
- Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Barry Jonas from Tuist Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Tuist Securities
Barry JonasAnalyst, Tuist SecuritiesHey, guys, thank you for taking my questions. Any early thoughts on potential implications from the U.S. midterm elections, whether that's OSB or iGaming legalization? Further PM regulation or really anything else that can impact you? Thank you.
- ManagementManagement
Hi, Barry. I'll take that first. So, obviously, we were disappointed with the results in Nebraska, where the ballot didn't... It didn't go in our favour, but I think we'll take something from that. When we look at the broader opportunities, I think we feel good about the prospect of future OSB and iGaming regulation over the coming years. We know that there's a need for the tax dollars. We know that we can deliver through regulation the protection for consumers that is required. Without reminding us, we're slowly at half of the US with OSB and 10% from iGaming. And I'm not going to try and tell you which states in which order, but we feel good coming through this that there is a strong pipeline of further state openings.
Great. And then just for a follow up, you know, just wanted to. Asked a little bit more about market making, you know, just just given the early success you're seeing, they're curious if you can give any thoughts on how big that business could ultimately get for Flutter and also how to think about the level of risks. around unfavorable sporting outcomes. Thank you. Yeah. Hi, Barry. I'll pick that one up. I think, as Dan said earlier, we're making really good progress with the market making piece. And I think with our expertise, particularly on, you know, correlation. events, markets, parlays and complex products, we certainly see an advantage for us in this space. I think that at the moment, we're focusing on delivering our forecast for this year. We're still very confident that we'll deliver on. The market making guidance that we set out at Q2 in terms of $50 million revenue being around circa $40 million EBITDA for this year. And then we see that building next year. We're not putting specific numbers. On it at the moment, we are working with more exchanges now and that will give some more opportunity. But we're we're really pleased with the progress that we're making.
- Operator
Thank you. Your next question.
- Operator
comes from the line of Jordan Bender from Citizens JMP. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hey, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the question. So when you gave the original increase in marketing last quarter for the back half of this year, you have the message. Gene was more around customer acquisition, activation. In your prepared remarks, you said some of the media costs that you're seeing or the media piece from prediction markets is basically intensifying the environment. I'm just trying to understand. Investment spend that you guys laid out last quarter kind of turned from being more opportunistic for the company to more defensive, just given what you've seen during the NFL season. And then, Rob, maybe on the follow-up here, the share buyback program now. Are is this kind of a conversation that we start to have once you get leverage back into the two to two and a half times range? Or is there some sort of level where, you know, this discussion starts up again? Thank you. Thanks, Jordan. So I'll take the first one, then Rob will pick up on the second here. The change that we was communicated by the team in Q2 was a uplift in promotional spend. It wasn't a marketing dollar media spend. So the uplift in promo. is something that we're really pleased with the response to. I think that's underpinned the improvements we've seen in amps, in frequency, in bet count, and ultimately share of wallet. And so I'm pleased with that. And that's been a core. part of the proposition. The team have, I think, lent into that and done an excellent job. And we expect, therefore, to continue that posture going forward. That's brought us from a promotional spend in aggregate level, broadly in line with the market.
I think that is what sets us up for the long term to be at that posture. With regard to the market, the elevated marketing media costs, I think we have seen in Q3 this year in particular. Elevated media spend across the category. I'm thinking here about brand marketing, digital marketing, etc. That as a category was up more than 60% year on year in September, up more than 50% more than year on year. In October, primarily driven by investment from some of the predict operators. Candidly, that does put pressure on asset costs. It also puts pressure on some of our share of voice. We need to be disciplined about how we spend our marketing dollars, but we also need to protect and grow our brand reach. We're very lucky with the amazing brand that we have, that we can amortize that spend across the whole country now. So there are two different... points, I think, specifically just to be clear on the promo investment and then on how we're seeing the marketing environment in particular. With regards to the share buyback, I think we've been quite clear about our capital allocation priorities. In the short term and it will continue to allocate capital efficiently and where we see the highest returns at the moment. There's lots of organic opportunity within the business to do that. We're very focused on bringing the leverage. As we said, it's 4.6 at Q3. We think we've got excellent free cash flow generation into 2027 and we will de-lever at pace and move back towards the quoted leverage range.
In a medium term, I think as and when we get there and, you know, I do realise that at the moment there is a compelling case for buybacks, but our focus is definitely on the organic capital allocation and de-leveraging and as of when we get. back towards our quoted medium term leverage ratio. It's definitely something that's on our list. We've always said that, you know, we will look at shareholder returns as well. So it is something we'll continue to consider. Thank you very much. As a reminder, we request that you ask both of your questions up front. Your next call is from the line of Bernie McTierren from Needham and Company. Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe first, just would love to talk about the sustainability of this U.S. acceleration, growth, and handle, and how are you thinking about retail? Gaining those gains. And then second, can you talk about the early results from Fendul Reserve Rewards? And is the higher promotional activity that we're seeing right now concentrated in this program? Or is it beyond that in other areas as well, too? Thank you. I'll take the second one first, I think. So, you know, we launched the Fendul Rewards program to the full base from the start of the NFL season. I think that's. It landed very well with our customers. We've seen a 7% uplift in perception of rewards and recognition from our Fendul customers. And that isn't just.
The awards program, but that has clearly been a very important part of that. I think beyond that, we've been leveraging some of the smart promotions and capabilities we've had around the group. We've got deep experience of how to deploy generosity from our different brands. across the international business and we've been taking a lot of that capabilities into FanDuel to be really scientific and thoughtful about how we deliver it to the right customer at the right time as well. So I'd say it's both of those things and it's clearly resonating. Very well with customers. With regard to sort of Hand All Uplift, I'm pleased to see the underlying customer momentum. I'm pleased to see the momentum in amps. I'm pleased to see the growth in bet count we're seeing on average now. Each customer is betting twice more per week. It's good to see that frequency improvement and it's testament to the share of wallet and I think there's further opportunities for us to grow that share of wallet. I'm not going to try and predict handle trends. Ultimately, we're focused on the revenue. generation from the business. But look, I think we're pleased with the early signs from the changes the team have made and credit to the team for the way they've lent in and made those changes very quickly. And I think just to add to that point, I think as we mentioned earlier, I think we feel vindicated in terms of the investment that we laid out at Q2 and how that's working. And we've definitely seen a stabilisation of market share and we've taken some market share.
Into Q3, you know, we've definitely built on the momentum off the back of the World Cup. I think we're seeing the levels of growth in the market that we anticipated at kind of mid single digits on Sportsbook. That's something that we'd expect to continue into next year. We'll obviously come back at Q4 and talk in more detail about our guidance for for 2027. It's important that we get a bit more of the key Q4 trading. Period under our belt as well with, you know, NFL in full flow and the NBA season having just kicked off just to understand where the momentum is taking us into next year. Great. Thank you.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Ian Moore from Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Bernstein
Ian MooreAnalyst, BernsteinThanks for taking my question. Just picking up on that last thread on the NBA. Super strong so far this season, but there's been some pretty notable, I guess, star player injuries. How are you thinking about NBA handle this season and engagement versus last year, given that? You know, player availability had any noticeable impact on Parlay mix or hold?
- ManagementManagement
Yeah, thanks. And it's pretty early days on the NBA, as you know, I think, you know, there was some momentum held over from last year. Exciting end to the season and the Knicks wins. I think we, you know, started the season at a good place and there was some, you know, great, great fixtures to start the season with. I think so far, you know, we're seeing it perform in line with our expectations. It's a long season. You know, players getting injured in NBA is not a new thing. So, you know, that's something that we factor in. You know, we are seeing. In quite a competitive market in terms of player injury insurance and the products that are out there, you know, we've had some strong products offering in that in NFL. And, you know, we continue to monitor that space as we go into the season.
Thanks. Appreciate it. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question moving forward. Thank you.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Robert Fishman from Rafat Nathanson. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Rafat Nathanson
Robert FishmanAnalyst, Rafat NathansonGood morning. With increased costs for the media and marketing in the U.S. that you've talked about, would you be re-evaluating your go-to market strategy and even willingness to work with some of the media partners like a Fox in a different way? And if you could just comment on whether you're shifting more of your spend nationally away. from the local state advertising market thank you. Yeah look I think the way we think about our band is in a very disciplined way right I mean it's not going to be my job to decide the precise channel mix but we are. very focused on delivering the right economic returns the right paybacks and as media costs change you know of course we have to keep re-evaluating all of the assets that we have but we see we still see. good returns or bear as we've acknowledged the competitive intensity is materially higher the costs therefore are under pressure in places and it's putting some of the pressure on some of the share of voice metrics so I think we need to be flexible and. disciplined in how we deploy our Miesbend but we're equally we've got an amazing asset in the FanDuel brand and where we need to keep developing it thank you.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Dan Pulitzer from JP Morgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · JP Morgan
Dan PulitzerAnalyst, JP MorganHey good morning everyone. Thanks for the question. I just wanted to go back to kind of how you're thinking about the sports growth in the US. You know if your NGR margins are going to be flat there. Obviously you're more reliant on handle growth from here, which I think is driven by that elevated promotional level. So I guess the question is how sustainable is this strategy and maybe how differentiated is it, especially as we enter an environment which is as you guys have said, it's increasingly competitive. Yeah. Hi, Dan. Yeah. So as we said, you know, we're not specifically guiding on 2027. I think when you think about some of the the building blocks for next year. And how we're thinking about them, we've talked about the fact that we expect there and anticipate there to be an elevated marketing intensity. I think if you look at the combination of what's happening in the prediction market space. And in core OSB at the moment, we think that's something that will continue into into 2027. The generosity investment that we've made over the last quarter has worked very effectively for us. So that's not something, again, that we. Anticipate stepping away from us as we move into next year. As I said earlier, we need to see how the market develops into 2027 and the levels of market growth that we see. We're pretty confident. But we're making the right steps in terms of product development, customer proposition, and we've really kind of moved forward in that space as well over the last course, which I think will stand us in good stead as we.
- ManagementManagement
As we go into next year, and as I said, we'll come back in February, our Q4s, and talk about 2027 in more detail. Thanks so much.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Joseph from Susquehanna.
Question · Susquehanna
JosephAnalyst, SusquehannaYour line is now open. Please go ahead. Good morning, Dan, Rob. I was curious to see if you could share any more details on the retention and the engagement. And metrics of the very large cohort of new World Cup customer acquisitions you had. It was about 2.3 million. And if you could share, you know, in terms of participation, what you've been able to convert, whether it be in football, U.S. football and or basketball in October. Yeah. So in the World Cup was about six percent of of Q3. Handel and it was a big customer acquisition event. As you said, we had 2.3 million customers on the World Cup. About a third of those were reactivated and we exited July with 600,000 more customers. Than we had in the previous two years. The retention was very strong. We saw MLB engagement through July and August benefiting from that. I think that's helped us as we carry through into September, increasing player frequency. As I said, that's been up by 4%. Bet count up 15% into the quarter. And I think it's contributed to the strong start of the NFL season. So we acquired a lot of customers in the World Cup. And I think that's put us in good stead as we. As I said, started the NFL season.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.
Question · Oppenheimer & Co
Jed KellyAnalyst, Oppenheimer & Cois now open. Please go ahead. Hey, great. Thanks for taking my question. Just if we look at the overall combo volumes and in the sports volumes on prediction markets, and we kind of assume like low double digit share. It should imply your market making revenue should be pretty well above the 50 million you're calling out. So can you just kind of talk about some of the puts and takes? When we look at like the public volumes, we can see how we should think about where you're, how you're competing. Against other market makers. Thanks. Yeah, I think with that kind of maths, Jed, we should get you onto the team and it'd be helpful for the overall forecast. As I've said, we are very much confident in the forecast that we've. got for this year. We're not coming out and saying that we're going to be materially better than that at this stage. I think some of the things as we look forward with market making that gives us a cause for optimism, as we said earlier, is that the fact that we are linking up with. And ultimately, we do feel we have a right to win in this space in terms of our expertise, our ability to to price complex products and also ultimately with our liquidity. You see some of the requests for prices on coming in. So, yeah, we're not upping the guidance for this year on market making. You'll recall as well, you know, there are market maker fees to be paid as well. So, you know, there is a cost of sale associated with market.
- Operator
We're confident in our guidance for this year and we will look to continue to improve that into 2027. Thank you. Your next question is from the line of Ryan signal from Craig Hallam.
Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hey, good day, Dan, Rob. How much of the increased competitive intensity do you think is a direct result of FanDuel, which you guys as the leader, everyone else has to work harder to compete against you guys. So it feels like this could just be. A negative feedback loop of promotes lower industry profitability and that ultimately driven by FanDuel. And then kind of second part of that, what gives you confidence, I guess, that you can ultimately wean players off of higher for. Longer generosity and ultimately moving that wind margins higher over the medium term after after being flat for a period over the near term. Thanks, I'll take that. So look, I think when the increase in generosity was. Communicated to be clear, that was to bring FanDuel in line with the market, not ahead of the market where we are today, we believe is in line or slightly below the market. In aggregate, not ahead of the market. So this for us was about ensuring that we had the right firepower and then we will use the science and the smart that we have to deploy that more effectively than anyone else. We can with the scale of our customer base. So we're definitely not elevating the generosity here in the market. From a marketing spend perspective, the increase has predominantly been driven by the prediction. And that's the reality of where we are right now in the market with some of the uncertainties that we have. And that will, as Rob has said, I think be a temporary...
...position. We wouldn't expect that to be at that level forever. But it is the nature of the market we're in today. Thinking more broadly, if I look out, the levels of overall generosity spend... ...are not unusual in an international context, albeit we would expect to see continued growth in the underlying gross margins. If I look around the world, the sorts of mix of promotions that we... ...have is not unusual at all. And we've got a lot of experience of how to optimize this from our businesses in Australia, in the UK, in Italy, where we've been doing this for many, many years. The science between how you think about your pricing, your gross margins, your generosity through margin, there's a lot in that. So I think we feel good about the long-term ability to drive overall net. Revenue, frankly, and net revenue margins. But we need to be flexible on the different levers that sit behind that to serve the customer in the right way.
Thanks, Dan. Good luck, guys.
- Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Clark Lampin from U.S. Bank BTIG. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · U.S
Clark LampinAnalyst, U.SThanks for taking the question. Good morning. Dan, I wanted to see if you could elaborate on the comment in the shareholder letter around accelerating the U.S. Roadmap and Innovation. I'm going to guess that includes first-party prediction product, but would be curious, I guess, for a core sportsbook and iGaming where you see opportunities for innovation and improvement. Does some of the sportsbook growth that's been topical in Q&A thus far hinge on further parlay penetration via new products and theoretical margin improvement maybe that's tied to product? And for iGaming, does product potentially allow you to manage greater competitive intensity right now? I would just be curious, I guess, what the playbook looks like. Thank you very much. Good. It's a great question. Look, I think that on the product side, it's one of the things I've been... Really, really impressed with the team on. So the pace with which we are improving the product experience for customers now, I think is the fastest that I've ever seen. 80% or more of our code in FanDuel has been... Driven by AI, we're deploying at six times the rate in terms of product development that we were 18 months ago. And that's really picked up in the last quarter, I would say. So I'm feeling good about the pace of development. And we're privileged because we've got no shortage of ideas from around the group of how to serve our customers even better. During the period, we saw a step change in our cash out availability. We saw some.
- ManagementManagement
Core improvements on things like market uptimes. But we also saw some more differentiated features on the social side of things and how we allow customers to share bets on personalization. And we are leveraging FanDuel Labs to to test and iterate new ideas. And that's giving us, whilst early days, powered by our sort of unique betting capabilities, different ways to create bets for customers that we don't think anyone else can can can do. We'll continue iterating those with customers and see what lands well. But I'm excited to test and learn quickly that if I again to the previous point of the previous question, really, I think that the we know that there is further upward scope for driving pilot penetration. We know that there is scope to drive frequency and bet count and to deliver new products. You know, this is a in the US is a by international standards, a young market, and there's lots of demand for a product that we've been. You know, and customer journeys and experiences that we haven't yet captured that we've seen from other parts of the world. So I'm excited about that for the team. And as I said, I'm really pleased and impressed with the way that product and tech teams are driving that innovation for the customer at increasing pace.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Monique Pollard from Citigroup. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Citigroup
Monique PollardAnalyst, CitigroupHi everyone. Thanks. Taking my question. Dan, I just wanted to pick up on, you know, what you were mentioning around, you know, the ways in which you can think to promote, et cetera, and generosity and generosity through margin. So, Rob, I think at the last set of results, you talked to promotional spend in the second half being about 6% of handle. I just wanted to understand how much of that was going to come via straight generosity and how much via a kind of odds boost pricing dynamic. I was thinking particularly of the BetProtect. that you had in September that was given away for free and what the uptake is like when you do the straight promotions versus generosity versus the kind of pricing dynamics and how to think about that.
- ManagementManagement
Hi, Monique. Look, so I mean, we think about the overall bucket of generosity in one. I think there are ways that it's reported in terms of different promos get reported in different ways. But that's not something that we split out of the way we think. We need to be flexible to deliver the right promo to the right customer at the right time. Sometimes those come through as free bets. Sometimes they come through as price boosts. Sometimes they come through as injury protects or super sub. We have all sorts of those in our armory. I think the aggregate level of 6% is the right way to think about it. But we're not going to be tied and the team would be wrong, frankly, to try and tie the team to any particular way of distributing. Rather than what works the customer at that point in time in the market. And we're very, very dynamic and responsive. These plans are constantly evolving. So, yeah, we think about it as one bucket and how to deliver the best. Experience with the customer. And that's the same way we do around the world. You have the same complexities when we think about SuperSub across the UK or across the Italian market or many of the promotions we run. Many of those run through gross margin. Some run through the free bets line. But I don't really focus on splitting those out and I don't think it would be right for the team to do so. Understood. Thank you.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Chad Banan from Macquarie. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Macquarie
Chad BananAnalyst, MacquarieMorning, afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Wanted to ask about I guess the mitigation or the UK iGaming mitigation journey thus far, kind of what you've learned. And as you think about, you know, how to navigate that business when sports betting implements the higher margin in 27, if you have, you know, different views versus original expectations based on your success thus far in iGaming. Thanks.
- ManagementManagement
Hi. So look, I think as people were probably picked up, we've had to make some pretty challenging decisions in the UK in the context of tax rises. And we announced last week or the week before that about 1400 departures from our UK and iBusiness. And that's, those are hard choices that the team have. to make. But we think they set us up to win in a post tax environment. We really had two choices with the taxes going up. One was to cut marketing and to cut generosity. The other was to leverage our scale to allow us to protect the investment in the customer. And we've picked the second. So we're leaning into our scale advantage. That's allowing us to reduce the fixed costs. Whilst protecting investments at a higher level on marketing, generosity, etc. And we think that is underpinning the share gains we've seen. And we think it will underpin further share gains going forward. So I think that's sort of strategically something that I. I think is very important for us, not just in the UK, but actually across Flutter more broadly. We have unparalleled global scale. We have the ability, therefore, to drive more operational levels.
We haven't always taken full advantage of that for lots of good reasons, but that's available to us in a way that I don't think it's available to anybody else. Yes. And... I think that positions as well to navigate these sorts of regulatory tax pressures, you know, better than others. They will all be painful. And the choices in the UK were very painful, but they're the right ones for the health of the business. And they'll set us up well. And I think that we're starting to see the results. And I have to say credit to the leadership of that business because they've done an admiral job of dealing with that. It was a very challenging situation positioning us for the long term.
Thank you for that, Dan. Appreciate it.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Paul Ruddy from Davie. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · Davie
Paul RuddyAnalyst, DavieHi, Dan and Rob. It's actually a bit of a follow-on from that question, and it's really about the growth part. I'm an international. I think you've referenced 5-10% annual revenue growth rate paradigm. Just thinking about 2027, is that an appropriate level for 2027 from a revenue perspective?
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You've referenced very strong Italy, but we've some tax headwinds in the UK and with Brazil coming out. Would you be able to give us a sense of what level or what range of EBITDA growth we could expect next year if that's 5-10%? Revenue growth paradigm is kind of appropriate for 27. Yeah. Hi, Paul. It's Robert. Good question. And yeah, ultimately for 2027, we are pretty confident about the ability to continue growing the EBITDA. In our international business, and we'd expect to be at the higher end of the range that you quoted there of 5% to 10%. I think when you look at revenue due to some of the other factors that you mentioned, we'd expect that to be slightly lower. We've got. a significant number of cost initiatives landing into 2027 that will obviously help with the EBITDA delivery and also investing behind initiatives within the business. So we've got a good level of confidence. about the strength of the international business into next year, certain parts of the portfolio performing particularly strongly and not talked a huge amount about Italy today, but we're really, really pleased with the. the performance in our Italian business and, you know, we continue to grow our market leadership there. So, yeah, overall, we'd expect to be at the high end of that range that you mentioned from an EBITDA perspective.
- Operator
Your next question is from the line of Charlie Muir Sands from BNP Paribas. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Question · BNP Paribas
Charlie Muir SandsAnalyst, BNP ParibasDan, Rob, thank you very much for taking my question. Given the context that you've talked about positively on international, perhaps more limited development in how you see profitability in the US next year. And you're focused on trying to de-level the business as well. Have you got any early thoughts you can share on potential CapEx levels? And also, have you contemplated and... ...set aside any consideration of potential operational disposal in order to accelerate fitting a balance sheet back into your target range? Thank you. I'll let Rob take the CapEx and I'll come back on in a second. Yeah, so we spoke about CapEx. at Q2, Charlie, and how we'd brought the guidance down for this year. So we brought it down to 815 million. We're very confident that we'll hit that number, if not a number slightly below and then into 2020. We're focused on reducing that further. We're looking at capex across the business as part of the simplification measures that Dan's laid out and bringing that down over time. So you can expect to continue to see capex come down over time and with regard to the portfolio, I think I'm a big believer in the scale that you need to win and we have got on. Unrivaled global scale in our category. We will always take a disciplined look at any of the assets around the world, but right now I think there's more opportunities to get more benefits from the scale that we have.
- ManagementManagement
rather than going the other way. We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now pass the call back to Dan and Rob.
- RobManagement
Thanks everyone and goodbye.
- Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.