AMH earnings call transcript, November 4, 2026

Greetings and welcome to the AMH third quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over. To your host, Nick Fromm, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter, 2026 earnings conference call. With me today are Brian Smith, Chief Executive. Officer, Chris Lau, Chief Financial Officer, and Lincoln Palmer, Chief Operating Officer. Please be advised that this call may include forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this conference call are forward-looking statements that are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these statements. These risks and other factors that could adversely affect our business and future results are described in our press releases and in our filings with the FCC. All forward-looking statements speak only as of today, November 5, 2026. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is included in our earnings press release and supplemental information package. As a note, our operating and financial results, including GAAP and non-GAAP measures, are fully detailed in our earnings release and supplemental information package. You can find these documents, as well as the SEC reports and the audio webcast replay of this conference call, on our website at www.amh.com. With that, I will turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Smith.

Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. AMH had another... showcasing the power and consistency of our platform. This year's results reflect the efforts of our outstanding team, our continued investments in technology, and our strategic capital allocation decisions. Together with healthy demand for high-quality AMH homes, this has enabled us... to raise the midpoint of our core FFO per share guidance by two pennies to $1.97, which represents 5.3% year-over-year growth. As we close out the remainder of the year and transition to 2027, we remain focused on maintaining occupancy. to set us up for a strong start to the year. Looking ahead, we continue to see solid demand for our homes, even as many households navigate a more challenging economic backdrop. affordability pressures in the- for sale market remain elevated, driven by mortgage rates near multi-decade highs. This further underscores the value of what AMH provides, a premium single family living experience for those who want a quality home without the- financial burden of home ownership. This value proposition continues to attract and retain a strong, high-quality resident base. Turning to third quarter results, same home average occupied days- was 96 percent, and new renewal and blended lease spreads were 1 percent, 3.3 percent, and 2.6 percent respectively. This drove same home core revenue growth of 2.3 percent. Together with expenses, same home core NOI growth was 2.5-

Thanks, Brian.

Star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press start 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset. Before pressing the star keys. To allow for as many questions as possible, we ask that you each keep to one question. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question. Great.

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.

Our next question comes from the line of Handel St. Just with Missouri.

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question. Great. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question. Great, thanks. I want to ask about

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Wayne with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Our next question comes online.

Jesse Letterman with Zellman & Associates. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, and thanks for taking the question. Follow-up on the development platform question. Based on the guide, it implies the fourth quarter deliveries at the high end of the range would be only about 100 homes, which, of course, for the whole-owned portfolio, which would be the lowest quarterly run rate since the program began. Also kind of curious how you are maintaining operating efficiency at that kind of run rate and if that says anything about, you know, where you might enter the year into 27, not looking for guide, but understanding. There's a lot of moving pieces with you seemingly reentering the land market and also having 7,000 plus lots kind of would suggest you'd like to, you know, work through those a bit and add to the portfolio. But of course, the implied pace in the fourth quarter is particular. So I'd love your thoughts. Thanks. Sure. Morning, Jesse. Chris here. I can start and then hand over to Brian. In terms of the fourth quarter pace, you're definitely correct in terms of the level of volume implied in the fourth.

Quarter. I would keep in mind that that very much is by design. We talked about this at the start of the year and the objective to really front load this year's deliveries into the first half of the year to. Better align those deliveries with the leasing season. So by design, we are seeing a moderation of deliveries into the slower time from a leasing perspective in the back half of the year, in particular, the fourth quarter with. With that said, you know, based on the way that we're tracking right now, in particular, in terms of balance sheet deliveries, wouldn't surprise me if we're probably a little bit closer to the high end of that range. But in terms of directional volume by quarter, the moderation in the back part of the year very much. intentional to align with the leasing season. Yeah, Jesse, this is Brian. You've identified one of the key components, too, or one of the advantages to owning an internal development program, and it's matching those deliveries, too. to levels of demand. You can see it in the way that we're pre leasing these houses as well. On the last call, I talked about second half deliveries, we were already 40% pre leased. And if you look at the homes that were going to be delivering in the balance of the year, that number is in excess of 50%. So the team's done a really good job of matching deliveries to the higher move out periods to areas where we might have a little bit better pricing activity as well.

Our next question comes from the line of David Siegel with Green Street. Please proceed with your question.

Our next question.

comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Good afternoon.

Thanks a lot for taking my question. You've talked about elevated mortgage rates supporting the relative affordability of renting. But if we ultimately get back to a more normalized for sale housing market with lower mortgage rates and higher transaction volumes, how do you think that affects pricing power for single family rentals? And there's greater movement into homeownership. Some of the people have vendors that are set by increased household mobility.

Yeah, thanks.

Thanks, Michael.

Appreciate. Appreciate the question. I think one of the things that you've highlighted this. Very important in the position that we've taken is that mobility is the tide that floats all boats when it comes to real estate movement. That's been fairly stagnant. The last, uh, the last year or two, um, as people have stayed in place around this, this higher mortgage rate environment. Um, we've also talked about the idea that, you know, that the mortgage rates and the move outs to. buy and the affordability, it has an impact on our portfolio, but it may not be as sensitive as, uh, as you would assume. You know, a large portion, in fact, I'd say a vast portion of our residents choose to rent because of the value, uh, because of the, the platform. Because of, um, you know, life changes or life decisions that, that make it a better choice for them than purchasing. And, and that tends to remain fairly stable. Uh, as far as interest rates, getting back to something more. In the short to midterm, it doesn't look like that probably, probably those are going to move, uh, to the extent that it would close that gap meaningfully. And if you took it from the price side, it would be the same thing. You're talking, you know, maybe 30% decline. lines and overall prices. So, uh, we're comfortable where we are today, given the fact that people are finding value in a platform. Um, we're providing a great option for people in this environment where it is challenging, um, from afford.

We're giving them a product that solves their needs. Our, our move out to buy has not changed, uh, significantly as we've gone through this period of higher interest rates, uh, since the movements initially in 2022, uh, we've fluctuated right around, uh, that, that 30% range on the move out to buy. And, and that's about where we sit today. So. Thank you.

Our next question comes from line of Peter Abramowitz with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question. Yes.

Thank you for, uh, for taking the time. Um. Just wanted to ask you, certainly you've had a, uh, a pretty successful year in terms of, uh, operations and expense management. Um, any initial thoughts you could share on the expense outlook in 2027? Um, and just specifically any of the moving pieces on the control or non-controllable side? that we should be thinking about as we, uh, sharpen up our models for 2027? Sure. Morning, Peter. Chris here. Um, yeah, I, I can try directionally a bit. Um, obviously can't get too detailed. Um, but, um, you know, like I mentioned in, in prepared remarks, uh, property taxes, um, have now moderated well below, uh, long-term averages. You know, current levels are actually tracking at, uh, company record lows. Um, and I wouldn't, I probably not prudent to, to count on, you know, property taxes running at back to back record, uh, low type of years, but we do know that home price appreciation is, is, you know, likely going to stay mute. At least for the immediate future, uh, that potentially sets up for another, you know, encouraging slash cooperative property tax here in 27. Um, sticking on, on the, the lesser kind of controllables, uh, you know, definitely too early to say anything about insurance. Um, I'll actually be in the London market next month working on our 27 renewal, but needless to say, uh, we are very pleased with this year's, uh, renewal, uh, and the rate.

Uh, we saw, uh, towards the beginning of this year and then, um, to your point on controllables, um, as always, that the team remains hyper focused on, on controlling those controllables. Um. Needless to say, they did a fantastic job this year, uh, and we would fully expect, um, them to continue that same level of focus and execution into next year as well. Thank you.

Our next question comes.

On the line of Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question. Yeah.

Hey, everybody. Thanks. Um, on development yields, what's the timeline that we should expect to see those start to rise? Um, I assume. If, you know, this, these 6% projects are going in the land bank, that probably takes several years. So should we expect to see just a gradual rise over the next few years? Or is there some other way to think about it?

Hi, Brad, this is.

We're starting to see some of them come through now. I mean, at a small level, the nature of land in that pipeline has started to shift a little bit. Historically, we started with raw land and now we're seeing some really nice finished lot opportunities, which would compress that holding period to the point where we could close on the land and start building very quickly so that there's some timing changes that's a result as a result of the current for sale housing market and the willingness of some of the national builders to sell portions of the well-located developments that we target. So we're seeing some of that coming in. And at a very small level over time, we would expect to migrate to that the new profile that I talked about in terms of some optimization on floor plans and so forth. But it will provide support for improving yields. Over time, it's not going to move the needle significantly for a little bit as we work through the existing pipeline. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Buckhorn with Raymond James.

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to management for final comments.

Thank you for your time today. We appreciate your continued interest in AMH and look forward to seeing many of you.

Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call.

Thank you for your participation.